2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:30 PM · Kenan Stadium
Duke @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Duke
31.4
North Carolina
25.3
North Carolina win probability: 35%
Margin (North Carolina − Duke): -6.0 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 56.7 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Duke 32 – North Carolina 25 (margin error 1.0, total error 0.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.