2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:30 PM · Alamodome
East Carolina @ UTSA
Predicted scoreToss-up
East Carolina
25.6
UTSA
27.7
UTSA win probability: 55%
Margin (UTSA − East Carolina): 2.0 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 30 to 78)
Actual: East Carolina 24 – UTSA 58 (margin error 32.0, total error 28.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.