Predicted scoreLikely
USC
25.7
Oregon
34.3
Oregon win probability: 70%
Margin (Oregon − USC): 8.6 (80% range -12 to 29)
Total: 60.0 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: USC 27 – Oregon 42 (margin error 6.4, total error 9.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.