2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 5:00 PM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Louisville @ SMU

Predicted scoreLean

Louisville

23.4

SMU

29.5

SMU win probability: 65%

Margin (SMU − Louisville): 6.1 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Louisville 6 – SMU 38 (margin error 25.9, total error 9.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.