2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 1:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium

Florida State @ NC State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Florida State

28.8

NC State

26.7

NC State win probability: 45%

Margin (NC State − Florida State): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Florida State 11 – NC State 21 (margin error 12.1, total error 23.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.