2025 Week 12 · Nov 16, 2025, 3:30 AM · Snapdragon Stadium

Boise State @ San Diego State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Boise State

24.6

San Diego State

22.4

San Diego State win probability: 44%

Margin (San Diego State − Boise State): -2.2 (80% range -21 to 17)

Total: 47.0 (80% range 26 to 69)

Actual: Boise State 7 – San Diego State 17 (margin error 12.2, total error 23.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.