2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 9:15 PM · Neyland Stadium
New Mexico State @ Tennessee
Predicted scoreConfident
New Mexico State
12.2
Tennessee
41.1
Tennessee win probability: 97%
Margin (Tennessee − New Mexico State): 28.9 (80% range 8 to 50)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: New Mexico State 9 – Tennessee 42 (margin error 4.1, total error 2.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 35 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.87% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.