Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia
26.6
Duke
30.4
Duke win probability: 59%
Margin (Duke − Virginia): 3.8 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Virginia 34 – Duke 17 (margin error 20.8, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.55% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.