2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Iowa @ USC

Predicted scoreLean

Iowa

24.2

USC

28.3

USC win probability: 60%

Margin (USC − Iowa): 4.2 (80% range -16 to 24)

Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Iowa 21 – USC 26 (margin error 0.8, total error 5.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.