2025 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2025, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

San Diego State @ Hawai'i

Predicted scoreToss-up

San Diego State

25.7

Hawai'i

24.6

Hawai'i win probability: 47%

Margin (Hawai'i − San Diego State): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 27 to 74)

Actual: San Diego State 6 – Hawai'i 38 (margin error 33.1, total error 6.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.