2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 9:30 PM · Kenan Stadium
Stanford @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Stanford
20.7
North Carolina
26.5
North Carolina win probability: 65%
Margin (North Carolina − Stanford): 5.7 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 47.2 (80% range 26 to 70)
Actual: Stanford 15 – North Carolina 20 (margin error 0.7, total error 12.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.