Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon
23.3
Iowa
22.2
Iowa win probability: 47%
Margin (Iowa − Oregon): -1.2 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Oregon 18 – Iowa 16 (margin error 0.8, total error 11.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.