2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 8:30 PM · Amon G. Carter Stadium

Iowa State @ TCU

Predicted scoreLean

Iowa State

25.8

TCU

30.5

TCU win probability: 62%

Margin (TCU − Iowa State): 4.7 (80% range -16 to 25)

Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Iowa State 20 – TCU 17 (margin error 7.7, total error 19.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.