2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 8:00 PM · FAU Stadium
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic
Predicted scoreLikely
Tulsa
23.2
Florida Atlantic
33.1
Florida Atlantic win probability: 73%
Margin (Florida Atlantic − Tulsa): 9.9 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Tulsa 21 – Florida Atlantic 40 (margin error 9.1, total error 4.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.