Predicted scoreToss-up
Houston
25.1
UCF
27.7
UCF win probability: 56%
Margin (UCF − Houston): 2.6 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Houston 30 – UCF 27 (margin error 5.6, total error 4.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.