2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLean

New Mexico State

24.0

Western Kentucky

32.2

Western Kentucky win probability: 69%

Margin (Western Kentucky − New Mexico State): 8.2 (80% range -13 to 28)

Total: 56.3 (80% range 32 to 82)

Actual: New Mexico State 16 – Western Kentucky 35 (margin error 10.8, total error 5.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.