2025 Week 10 · Nov 1, 2025, 7:00 PM · Allegiant Stadium
New Mexico @ UNLV
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico
29.3
UNLV
33.0
UNLV win probability: 59%
Margin (UNLV − New Mexico): 3.6 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 62.3 (80% range 38 to 89)
Actual: New Mexico 40 – UNLV 35 (margin error 8.6, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.