Predicted scoreLean
Tennessee
26.2
Kentucky
20.6
Kentucky win probability: 35%
Margin (Kentucky − Tennessee): -5.7 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 25 to 69)
Actual: Tennessee 56 – Kentucky 34 (margin error 16.3, total error 43.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.90% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.