Predicted scoreLikely
Minnesota
16.1
Iowa
26.2
Iowa win probability: 76%
Margin (Iowa − Minnesota): 10.1 (80% range -8 to 29)
Total: 42.3 (80% range 21 to 64)
Actual: Minnesota 3 – Iowa 41 (margin error 27.9, total error 1.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.84% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.