2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 4:00 PM · Kenan Stadium
Virginia @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia
31.6
North Carolina
21.8
North Carolina win probability: 27%
Margin (North Carolina − Virginia): -9.8 (80% range -31 to 11)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Virginia 17 – North Carolina 16 (margin error 8.8, total error 20.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.