2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 11:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
USC @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreLikely
USC
24.3
Notre Dame
34.9
Notre Dame win probability: 74%
Margin (Notre Dame − USC): 10.6 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 35 to 85)
Actual: USC 24 – Notre Dame 34 (margin error 0.6, total error 1.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.