2025 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2025, 1:45 AM · Albertsons Stadium
New Mexico @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico
25.7
Boise State
32.0
Boise State win probability: 65%
Margin (Boise State − New Mexico): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: New Mexico 25 – Boise State 41 (margin error 9.6, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.