2025 Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025, 11:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Michigan @ USC

Predicted scoreLean

Michigan

25.4

USC

32.9

USC win probability: 68%

Margin (USC − Michigan): 7.5 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 58.3 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Michigan 13 – USC 31 (margin error 10.5, total error 14.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.