Predicted scoreLean
Iowa
23.8
Wisconsin
19.3
Wisconsin win probability: 38%
Margin (Wisconsin − Iowa): -4.6 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 43.1 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Iowa 37 – Wisconsin 0 (margin error 32.4, total error 6.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14 | 1.04% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.93% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.