2025 Week 7 · Oct 10, 2025, 12:00 AM · BBVA Compass Stadium (neutral site)

Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreLikely

Jacksonville State

32.8

Sam Houston

18.9

Sam Houston win probability: 19%

Margin (Sam Houston − Jacksonville State): -13.9 (80% range -35 to 7)

Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Jacksonville State 29 – Sam Houston 27 (margin error 11.9, total error 4.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.