2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Virginia @ Louisville

Predicted scoreLean

Virginia

24.8

Louisville

30.5

Louisville win probability: 64%

Margin (Louisville − Virginia): 5.7 (80% range -15 to 27)

Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Virginia 30 – Louisville 27 (margin error 8.7, total error 1.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.