2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 7:30 PM · Notre Dame Stadium
Boise State @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreConfident
Boise State
16.2
Notre Dame
38.2
Notre Dame win probability: 92%
Margin (Notre Dame − Boise State): 22.1 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Boise State 7 – Notre Dame 28 (margin error 1.1, total error 19.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.