Predicted scoreLikely
Wisconsin
19.6
Michigan
30.5
Michigan win probability: 76%
Margin (Michigan − Wisconsin): 10.9 (80% range -8 to 31)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Wisconsin 10 – Michigan 24 (margin error 3.1, total error 16.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.