2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 2:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
New Mexico @ San José State
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico
29.5
San José State
26.6
San José State win probability: 43%
Margin (San José State − New Mexico): -2.9 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 31 to 82)
Actual: New Mexico 28 – San José State 35 (margin error 9.9, total error 6.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.