2025 Week 6 · Oct 3, 2025, 1:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Sam Houston @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Sam Houston

27.3

New Mexico State

25.7

New Mexico State win probability: 46%

Margin (New Mexico State − Sam Houston): -1.5 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Sam Houston 10 – New Mexico State 37 (margin error 28.5, total error 6.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.