2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:30 PM · Stanford Stadium
San José State @ Stanford
Predicted scoreToss-up
San José State
23.1
Stanford
23.6
Stanford win probability: 51%
Margin (Stanford − San José State): 0.5 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 46.7 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: San José State 29 – Stanford 30 (margin error 0.5, total error 12.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.