2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 8:00 PM · University Stadium (NM)

New Mexico State @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreConfident

New Mexico State

21.8

New Mexico

38.9

New Mexico win probability: 85%

Margin (New Mexico − New Mexico State): 17.2 (80% range -4 to 38)

Total: 60.7 (80% range 36 to 87)

Actual: New Mexico State 20 – New Mexico 38 (margin error 0.8, total error 2.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.