2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM · Huskie Stadium
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
San Diego State
22.5
Northern Illinois
25.3
Northern Illinois win probability: 57%
Margin (Northern Illinois − San Diego State): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 47.7 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: San Diego State 6 – Northern Illinois 3 (margin error 5.8, total error 38.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.