2025 Week 5 · Sep 26, 2025, 11:00 PM · Scott Stadium
Florida State @ Virginia
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida State
27.8
Virginia
27.4
Virginia win probability: 49%
Margin (Virginia − Florida State): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Florida State 38 – Virginia 46 (margin error 8.4, total error 28.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.