2025 Week 5 · Sep 25, 2025, 11:30 PM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Army @ East Carolina

Predicted scoreLean

Army

27.9

East Carolina

22.0

East Carolina win probability: 35%

Margin (East Carolina − Army): -5.9 (80% range -25 to 14)

Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Army 6 – East Carolina 28 (margin error 27.9, total error 15.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.