Sam's Scores

2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 8:00 PM · Wallace Wade Stadium

NC State @ Duke

Predicted scoreToss-up
NC State
27.4
Duke
26.9
Duke win probability: 49%
Margin (DukeNC State): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: NC State 33Duke 45 (margin error 12.5, total error 23.7)
Most likely scorelines
AwayHomeProbability
24240.72%
17170.66%
24210.65%
24170.64%
21210.60%
Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.

Home score →Away score →