Predicted scoreToss-up
NC State
27.4
Duke
26.9
Duke win probability: 49%
Margin (Duke − NC State): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: NC State 33 – Duke 45 (margin error 12.5, total error 23.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.