2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium

North Carolina @ UCF

Predicted scoreLean

North Carolina

24.2

UCF

29.4

UCF win probability: 63%

Margin (UCF − North Carolina): 5.2 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: North Carolina 9 – UCF 34 (margin error 19.8, total error 10.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.