Predicted scoreLean
SMU
25.1
TCU
33.2
TCU win probability: 69%
Margin (TCU − SMU): 8.1 (80% range -13 to 29)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: SMU 24 – TCU 35 (margin error 2.9, total error 0.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.