Predicted scoreLikely
Wisconsin
19.2
Alabama
30.6
Alabama win probability: 77%
Margin (Alabama − Wisconsin): 11.5 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Wisconsin 14 – Alabama 38 (margin error 12.5, total error 2.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.