2025 Week 2 · Sep 7, 2025, 3:59 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Sam Houston @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreToss-up
Sam Houston
27.4
Hawai'i
28.7
Hawai'i win probability: 53%
Margin (Hawai'i − Sam Houston): 1.3 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Sam Houston 20 – Hawai'i 37 (margin error 15.7, total error 0.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.