2025 Week 2 · Sep 7, 2025, 1:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Tulsa @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Tulsa

27.9

New Mexico State

29.7

New Mexico State win probability: 54%

Margin (New Mexico State − Tulsa): 1.8 (80% range -20 to 23)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Tulsa 14 – New Mexico State 21 (margin error 5.2, total error 22.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.