2025 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2025, 12:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
TCU @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
TCU
29.5
North Carolina
27.1
North Carolina win probability: 44%
Margin (North Carolina − TCU): -2.4 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: TCU 48 – North Carolina 14 (margin error 31.6, total error 5.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.