2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 11:30 PM · Michigan Stadium
New Mexico @ Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
New Mexico
13.2
Michigan
41.3
Michigan win probability: 96%
Margin (Michigan − New Mexico): 28.1 (80% range 7 to 49)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: New Mexico 17 – Michigan 34 (margin error 11.1, total error 3.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 0.94% |
| 10 | 35 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.88% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 7 | 42 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.