2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 7:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Alabama @ Florida State

Predicted scoreConfident

Alabama

35.0

Florida State

16.2

Florida State win probability: 11%

Margin (Florida State − Alabama): -18.8 (80% range -39 to 1)

Total: 51.2 (80% range 29 to 75)

Actual: Alabama 17 – Florida State 31 (margin error 32.8, total error 3.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.