2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 1:30 AM · BBVA Compass Stadium (neutral site)

UNLV @ Sam Houston

Predicted scoreLean

UNLV

27.5

Sam Houston

20.1

Sam Houston win probability: 32%

Margin (Sam Houston − UNLV): -7.4 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 47.7 (80% range 26 to 71)

Actual: UNLV 38 – Sam Houston 21 (margin error 9.6, total error 11.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.