2025 Week 1 · Aug 28, 2025, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium

Jacksonville State @ UCF

Predicted scoreLikely

Jacksonville State

23.2

UCF

34.5

UCF win probability: 75%

Margin (UCF − Jacksonville State): 11.4 (80% range -10 to 32)

Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Jacksonville State 10 – UCF 17 (margin error 4.4, total error 30.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.