2025 Week 1 · Aug 23, 2025, 11:00 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLean

Sam Houston

22.1

Western Kentucky

28.9

Western Kentucky win probability: 67%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Sam Houston): 6.8 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Sam Houston 24 – Western Kentucky 41 (margin error 10.2, total error 13.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.