2023 Postseason · Jan 1, 2024, 10:00 PM · Rose Bowl (neutral site)

Alabama @ Michigan

Predicted scoreToss-up

Alabama

28.5

Michigan

27.5

Michigan win probability: 47%

Margin (Michigan − Alabama): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 56.0 (80% range 31 to 81)

Actual: Alabama 20 – Michigan 27 (margin error 8.0, total error 9.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.