2023 Postseason · Jan 1, 2024, 6:00 PM · Camping World Stadium (neutral site)

Iowa @ Tennessee

Predicted scoreLikely

Iowa

20.0

Tennessee

31.3

Tennessee win probability: 76%

Margin (Tennessee − Iowa): 11.3 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Iowa 0 – Tennessee 35 (margin error 23.7, total error 16.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.