2023 Postseason · Dec 20, 2023, 2:00 AM · Toyota Stadium (neutral site)

UTSA @ Marshall

Predicted scoreToss-up

UTSA

23.9

Marshall

23.0

Marshall win probability: 48%

Margin (Marshall − UTSA): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 46.9 (80% range 25 to 70)

Actual: UTSA 35 – Marshall 17 (margin error 17.0, total error 5.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.